President Mugabe can scuttle SADC efforts to refinance Zimbabwe with his predictable political public posturing
The SADC Extraordinary meeting held in Swaziland on 30 March 2009 has ended with a resolution supporting the Zimbabwe Short Term Economic Recovery Programme (STERP) and suspending Madagascar from the regional political bloc.
Sadc has expressed satisfaction with progress so far recorded by the coalition government and commended the Zimbabwe political leadership and urged them to address outstanding Global Political Agreement issues that are causing apprehension and staining the magnificent progress recorded so far.
The gullible Zimbabwe media starved of positives to report about the country is awash with headlines declaring SADC has approved close to US$10.5 billion short term recovery assistance for Zimbabwe up from the initial estimate of US$5 billion it was thought would be required to turn around the country’s economic fortunes.
The reality is that all SADC has done is endorse the Zimbabwe coalition government’s estimated pressing short term financial need.
This is an important key step in efforts to source external funding in that the figures sought are agreed as being legitimate and properly established.
SADC has not by any means approved and committed US$10 billion to the Zimbabwe turn around initiative.
What they have simply done is to agree that the required short term funding to halt the malaise in Zimbabwe is US$10 billion.
The regional leaders have said as neighbours of Zimbabwe they are not in any position to fork out that kind of money and spare it for Zimbabwe.
They will thus retire to their respective countries an after internal consultations will pledge whatever sum they can spare for Zimbabwe to the SADC chair.
South Africa has taken the lead by announcing its immediate pledge of US$80 million.
At that rate there will be massive deficit on the require US$10 billion aid and SADC have pledged support to help Zimbabwe raise the funds to cover the deficit internationally.
The main stumbling block in this regard is that America will in terms of ZIDERA veto any extension of credit to Zimbabwe by defined multilateral financial institutions.
There are specific conditions set in ZIDERA that Zimbabwe must meet before it can be extended multilateral international financing.
SADC have thus pledged to help Zimbabwe secure such funding and will thus testify on behalf of Zimbabwe, we suppose, that the conditions have been met and the USA must relax the embargo.
This good neighbourly gesture will only work in the country’s favour if somehow SADC manages to push President Mugabe’s vitriolic ranting and open disregard of the rule of law to the backroom.
But that is no mean task given President Mugabe’ penchant for publicity. It appears that SADC will have to focus on another face to project Zimbabwe positively in international circles and that is not a good political sign for President Mugabe and his Zanu PF acolytes.
But with the MDC now on board the coalition government it is much easier for SADC to push through the reforms necessary to give their support for aid to Zimbabwe through this group of political leaders.
President Mugabe will obviously do all in his power to remain politically relevant but since policy formulation of the country is now the preserve of the Premier and his National Council of Ministers it is inevitable President Mugabe will be sidelined on many of the contentious issues being used to deny Zimbabwe access to the international aid.
He will not take that lying but he will not make much difference and will be forced to tow the line by circumstances in the new political dispensation in the country.
Most of his erstwhile supporters of yesteryears are also in deep trouble with the economic malaise and would like a respectable channel to turn a new leaf in Zimbabwe and SADC presents such an escape route that may spare them embarrassing labelling.
In Madagascar things are not looking bright as SADC has suspended the country over Andry Rajoelina’s unprocedural ascendancy to the country’s Presidency.
The stage is set for Madagascar’s isolation from the international community and Zimbabwe’s hyperinflation is likely to find a new home in Madagascar as the new regime is unlikely to be persuaded to relinquish its newly found power and SADC has nothing short of military intervention to remedy that.
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