No amount of time has been wasted in scrambling for a share of the unprecedented windfall. Each opposition political formation – and boy are they numerous- is in overdrive repositioning strategy manoeuvres to be the most attractive destination for the ZANU PF fall guys. And the victims are equally positioning themselves to secure the most advantageous patch to launch a devastating blow on their former colleagues whom they will never forgive for the savage manner their political aspirations within the ruling party were extinguished.
In an unprecedented development, leading media houses have allocated generous space to cover the document released the most prominent of the ZANU PF pruning initiative former Vice President Joice Runaida Teurairopa Mujuru that has been since christened the ZANU PEOPLE FIRST (PF) party manifesto notwithstanding the reality that there is not a shred of evidence that such a party has been constituted.
Be that as it may the publication of the so called People First party manifesto has increased political temperatures a few degrees as it has not only caught imagination on social media but has managed to make heads in both the ruling and opposition parties turn and take notice and react. Not that there is anything new in the so called manifesto but rather because its source and author was such a prominent ruling party leader who has been savaged by a party she had devoted and sacrificed everything to defend until her inglorious expulsion.
So ruthless was her expulsion undertaken that many within and outside the ruling ZANU PF were driven to sympathise and empathise with her given that she was widowed in mysterious circumstances many believed were internal power exterminations the ruling party is reputed for. Hitherto her response had been utter silence for over six months after protesting her innocence and loyalty to President Mugabe and Zanu PF despite her expulsion.
The ZANU PF leader and President was publicly forced to sever association with her deputy by his wife who in the process catapulted herself into the top leadership of the ruling party as Women’s League Chair. She has since then subtly sent out signals that she is the key to any meaningful political position in the Zanu PF government and the party and is now even more feared by all in the party than her aged husband. Public slander directed at Joice Mujuru by Grace Mugabe leading up to her expulsion and after her demise naturally transformed her from the villain she was known to be as a Vice President to a pitiful widow being victimised by a party seeking vengeance for what her late husband would not allow the party to do to her and those in her faction.
In that context anything she was to say was naturally going to arouse intense interest and the document she published confirmed that.
The reality though is that the question of coalescing to dethrone Mugabe’s ruling junta/dynasty party masquerading as ZANU PF had been raging for years yet the opposite was manifesting in opposition party splits only for the rebels to champion coalescing. It did and does not make logical sense that a breakaway leader from an opposition party would seek to coalesce with the very party he/she had deserted in acrimonious circumstances. Aware of that most breakaway opposition sectarian leaders tried hard and are still trying hard to persuade members of the formation they deserted to switch loyalty to the new formations they now lead and dumb the leadership of the main opposition party namely MDC-T. The people however are refusing to be hoodwinked by the cheap politicking of the renegade rebels and rallying solidly behind the MDC-T founding President Morgan Tsvangirai.
The unamused rebels are then forced to personalise political issues and reduce themselves to name calling politicians with little if anything different to what the MDC-T represents in the minds of the oppressed populace. Aware of the swell of discontent the ruling party has resorted to shameless vote rigging tactics to the extent that it has now perfected the art through the security services that it no longer brooks any nonsense from civilian politicians that do not subscribe to electoral rigging as a means of securing power.
As is evident from the so called People First manifesto released by Joice Mujuru there was no consensus within the ruling Zanu PF party on the rigging to retain power initiative that led to the massive fallout in the party leading to its December 2014 congress. The resultant fall guys are now openly exposing that reality. And they are threatening to get back at their former colleagues by unleashing an opposition party that will coalesce with existing opposition parties of note to dethrone Mugabe and his post 2014 congress Zanu PF that they refuse to recognise.
Like other opposition breakaway factions in place they refuse to join as individuals preferring to constitute themselves as an independent opposition formation and thereafter seeking alliances with especially the MDC-T that they already know has the support adequate to win elections and has won elections before but failed to take over power because of the undemocratic instruments they hitherto used to prevent the winner from assuming power. They intent to use knowledge of those instruments and how to circumvent them to bargain influential positions in opposition politics because they know that the MDC-T will win and they will guarantee power transfer and get into the driving seats of the current opposition’s government.
The current opposition MDC-T is not oblivious to its capacity to win elections and impediments to ascend to power and thus the promise from people first proponents is salivating. For what does it help to win elections and end up holding the wooden spoon as happened in 2008 and 2013 when there is a new ally who says they are able to reverse the fraudulent Zanu PF electoral system and guarantee power transfer to the legitimate winner, who is not in doubt in their experience.
As salivating as it might sound, how sure is the MDC-T that after winning they will not find themselves holding the wooden spoon yet again when People First using the coalition deliver power to themselves rather than the MDC-T winners?
It is unlikely that People First will fail to cause power transfer as they are well connected within the defence forces and security ministries that have hitherto guaranteed Zanu PF retains power despite losing elections so People FIRST are in a win/win position in any coalition to bargain for allotment of the highest office before elections and then retaining it when coalescing partners triumph.
But we all know what happened when Mugabe held onto the Presidency during the GNU tenure and must be wary about the possibility of history repeating itself.
The best scenario would be a coalition that is numbers based. Every party goes into the preliminary election round backing its own candidate so that MDC-T will tussle its breakaway formations and People First will tussle Zanu PF for its support.
If People First is as well supported as it claims it will whittle Zanu PF votes to nothing and its leader will come a cropper in the first round meaning MDC-T and People First candidates would contest the deciding round and the winner will become President.
Alternatively should People First fail to beat the Zanu PF candidate into third place they will be guaranteed strong representation in Government if they concede defeat and ask their support to back the MDC-T leader for the Presidential run-off and vice versa in the unlikely event the MDC-T leader will be pushed into third place in the preliminary round.
No disrespect intended but all the other smaller formations combined have shown that even if they coalesce or merge into one they will not be able to win against Zanu PF let alone MDC-T. People first is yet to show the strength of its support base and if by elections are anything to go by there is potential in some constituencies but not all where Zanu has been dominant by hook or crook or even for real.
While the opposition is right to celebrate the Zanu PF disintegration and the coming on board of the People First project with its potential to split the Zanu PF support base if any at any level including the fraudulent institutions, they must proceed with caution in any coalition agreements they enter with any other formation and in all cases must insist on a post election grass-roots support based power sharing arrangement rather than a speculative based agreement.
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