MDC President and Zimbabwe Prime Minister Designate will be sworn in shortly
Sadc Heads of State met in South Africa on Monday 26 January 2008 to map a way forward for the stalled Unity government consummation in Zimbabwe.
Formation of the government had been bogged down over the sequence and chronology of steps that should be followed in forming the government.
During negotiations to form the inclusive government negotiators from Zanu PF and the two MDC formations which for clarity will be referred to as MDC-T and MDC-M agreed on elements that were at variance with current provisions of the country’s constitution.
The agreement was thrashed out in a less than ideal political environment where the electoral process was interfered with in midstream by the Military commanders who for all intend and purposes had suspended the Constitution and silently installed a Junta regime fronted by Robert Mugabe
Because Robert Mugabe had previously served 5 consecutive terms as Head of State and contested but lost the Presidential election on 29 March 2008, international response to the military coup that imposed him as President for a sixth consecutive term on 29 June 2008 was lukewarm and nowhere near as harsh as would have been the case had the military commanders imposed one from their ranks as the new Head of State.
It is the lukewarm response to the coup by the AU and SADC that led to a resolution that the coup be downgraded to continued aggravated political dislocation in the country requiring mediation to help protagonists settle their differences.
The 29 March 2008 election combined the Presidential, the Legislative and the Local Governance after Mugabe’s attempt to defer the Presidential election to 2010 had met serious opposition from opposition political parties and from within his Zanu PF party from camps jockeying to replace him as party leader.
Because of the country’s reputation for staging violent and discredited elections SADC had appointed former South Africa president Thabo Mbeki to help the country’s main political protagonists set ground rules for a credible election that would produce an undisputed outcome.
The Zanu PF leader had subscribed to the SADC mediation process to mitigate growing international condemnation of his government’s excesses after his government had violently disrupted an open-ground prayer meeting on 11 March 2007 organised by Civic Society leaders under the Save Zimbabwe Council banner which had attracted opposition political party leaders.
Opposition political party leaders were arrested and thoroughly beaten while in police custody resulting in worldwide condemnation of the Zanu Pf government’s intolerance of political diversity and disrespect of fundamental human rights.
When he felt the anxieties and consternation the thuggish violence by his law enforcement agents had subsided enough to allow him to have his way, Robert Mugabe suspended the mediation process and introduced Constitutional amendment number 18 (CA No 18) in place of the New constitution that was the central subject of mediated negotiations.
The hope that elections in March 2008 would be held under a new Constitutional order evaporated into thin air when out of confidence the political opponents had gained from negotiating with Zanu PF before the AU and Sadc appointed mediator, CA No 18 was passed by Parliament unopposed.
Robert Mugabe believed he commanded unassailable support to be Zimbabwe’s head of state and his opponents were in disarray after the main opposition party had split in October 2005 and had tried to reconcile in vain.
The March elections saw a remarkable reduction in incidence of pre-election violence and freedom of all political formations and Independents to canvass for votes wherever with minimal hindrance from Zanu PF militia and State security and law enforcement agents.
Despite marshalling all State resources to support his campaign Mugabe lost the election to MDC-T leader Morgan Tsvangirai.
The margin of loss was so emphatic it took the Joint Operations Commission (JOC) 35 days of private tempering with ballots in secret locations before they could authorise the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) to announce the cooked result that still confirmed Mugabe had lost the election but was entitled to seek a runoff election as no candidate had managed the absolute majority required of one to be declared duly elected and incontestable President.
The runoff was belatedly staged outside legally prescribed 21 day period from the date the initial election was held for such an election to be held if necessary.
The illegal extension of time within which the runoff Presidential election allowed Mugabe to revive his electoral violence network that he had demobilised in the run up to the March 2008 election.
Initial election winner Morgan Tsvangirai who had been coerced by SADC to participate in the runoff despite it being called out of prescribed time braved every threat to his life and tried to campaign but was barred by State security agents from doing so.
Over 200 of his perceived supporters were murdered and no less than a further 300 000 of his supporters were displaced by the violence.
Appeals to SADC, AU and the UN to prevail on Mugabe to stop the violence failed to yield a positive response from him forcing the MDC-T National council that was sponsoring Tsvangirai’s runoff bid to pull him out of the sham electoral process Zanu PF and Mugabe had embarked on.
Mugabe continued with the process and on 29 June 2008 was declared winner of a runoff election in which he ended solo contestant with a “landslide” 85% of the vote.
Immediately after his inauguration he boarded the plane to Sharm El Sheik Egypt where the AU summit was in session.
He was not well received and returned home with an AU resolution compelling him to negotiate an inclusive government to regularise his disputed “re-election.”
Once again he obliged and submitted to a Memorandum of Understanding that led to negotiations that culminated with the signing of a Global Political Agreement (GPA) on 15 September 2008.
In that agreement Robert Mugabe (Zanu PF), Morgan Tsvangirai (MDC-T) and Professor Arthur Mutambara (MDC-M) AGREED to form an Inclusive government in place of one that would have been formed by the winner of the 29 March 2008 harmonised elections.
It therefore boggles the mind when Zimbabwean and International press misrepresent that Tsvangirai has agreed to form or participate in the inclusive government as determined by SADC on 26 January 2009.
This is a falsehood that needs to be corrected now before history carries a distortion that is material.
Tsvangirai Mugabe and Mutambara agreed to form and participate in an inclusive government on 11 September 2008.
The agreement was solemnised on 15 September 2008.
In agreeing to form and participate in the inclusive government, the subscribers held different visions about how the formation process would be carried through.
The negotiators envisaged that once the Principals appended their signatures to the GPA the provisions of the agreement would acquire legal force. That is why they inserted Article XXV which states;
“This Agreement shall enter into force upon its signature by the Parties.”
Mugabe viewed the agreement as having come into force in respect of his retention of the Presidency of the country when the subscribers upended their signatures.
Going by his actions thereafter it appears he held and still holds that the agreement gave him sole discretion to determine the chronology of events to be followed, appoint top Civil servants, Heads of Diplomatic Missions, Governors and other senior Statutory officers.
In short Mugabe is of the view that he has the legitimacy to appoint government and preside over it as he deems fit.
But the agreement seems to be premised on consensus between him and partners to the agreement in discharging governmental responsibilities.
This is only beginning to sink in his mind after numerous his numerous threats to form the government have come to nought after SADC resisted such moves and threatened to abandon mediation efforts if he ever dared take such a self destruct course of action.
Professor Mutambara on the other hand held that the formation of the inclusive government was concluded on 15 September 2008 when parties signed the GPA.
It is easy to visualise him hoping to walkout of the signing ceremony as Deputy Prime Minister.
He really believed and still believes that consensus seeking activities in the inclusive government are more procedural formalities to be worked out by the inclusive government structures rather than negotiated before the government structures are in place.
For Professor Mutambara the need for parties to submit names of functionaries in the agreed 31 Cabinet positions, 15 Deputy Ministers and the MDC-T Deputy Prime Minister nominee for attestation into the government is the only critical issue left to be addressed outside the inclusive government structure and the rest he believes will be sorted out by those assigned responsibility to govern.
Tsvangirai meanwhile appeared to hold that the signing ceremony on 15 September 2008 was the basis upon which consensus seeking initiatives in forming and running the inclusive government was to be premised.
Clearly the MDC-T was of the view that swearing in of the Cabinet and other members of the inclusive government would be the last formality after consensus had be reached among the signatories of the GPA on which Cabinet portfolios, which Governorships, Permanent Secretaries and Ambassadorial postings will be allotted to which party.
In addition to that the MDC would have wanted the structures of the new government agreed upon and legislation governing the National Security Council agreed upon before Constitutional amendment No 19 to give effect to the wholesomeness of the agreement was fast tracked in parliament to launch the agreed upon inclusive government.
SADC apparently prefers the Professor Mutambara version of what had to be done and have consistently pushed that line.
The danger though is that the mistrust between parties to the GPA will be carried into Government structures and valuable management time will be lost political power consolidation activities by those assigned responsibilities to govern at the expense of economic turnaround initiatives for the benefit of the people whose vote this agreement will supplant.
The MDC-T appears to now hold the view that it has made its basis for participating in the inclusive government tacit.
The party realises it will not attract the national goodwill and international support to the inclusive government to the extent it would have done if the fundamentals it raised were resolved before the inclusive government is in place.
It is a frightening prospect with real potential to alienate the party with the swelling grassroots support it currently enjoys when inclusive government failures will now be equally borne by the parties yet Zanu PF will be pulling the strings in the government because of the failure to address power disparities from the outset.
Be that as it may the party has other pressing issues to prove itself on like restoration of government accountability to the nationals, exposing selective application of justice and rule of law, consolidating its political space by reigning in on errand law enforcers, access to privileged information status preserved for Zanu PF, influencing monetary policy and fiscal discipline in government and defending human rights which it can do more efficiently and effectively as part of the government than the opposition.
Put otherwise the widely held view that Mugabe is ironically the cause of Zimbabwe’s woes and their solution as well seems to be central to the position the Party’s national Executive will take on the inclusive government process at its meeting today 30 January 2009.
It is clear that the MDC fall-back position on opposing passage of Constitutional Amendment No 19 will be balanced against the opportunities its passage will create for the party and the decision will be in favour of its passage like what happened to CA No 18 and the benefits that devolved to the party despite the unpopularity of its passage.
To that end therefore the MDC-T will almost certainly support the passage of CA No 19 ahead of resolution of its expressed misgivings paving the way for its leader’s inauguration as the 2nd Prime Minister of Zimbabwe.
The fall back position will be shifted to the get out clause in the agreement.
MDC-T wants to try and push for a new Constitutional order and control of key state institutions after which if Zanu Pf refuses to tow the line it will abandon ship and cause the collapse of the inclusive government and
Morgan Tsvangirai is on record as saying “there is no such thing as a risk free political decision” and the risks involved in the party taking positions in the inclusive government will be categorised as such.
Perhaps the lies peddled by the Herald and other Sate owned and controlled media will be put in check by the activation of the GPA and for once we will be spared the misrepresentations about sanctions, sovereignty and Tsvangirai agreeing to join the inclusive government on 26 January 2009 when that decision was taken on 11 September 2008 but had been stalled by inconsistencies in implementation methodologies due to unresolved issues surrounding it.
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