Emmerson Mnangagwa right and trusted advisor Professor Jonathan Moyo facing uphill task to retain relevance in Zanu PF
Emmerson Mnangagwa’s political life in Zanu PF has been characterised with lethargic failure at the last hurdle in similar fashion to the history of the Zimbabwe men’s National soccer team.
Here is the men that was entrusted with transforming the allegiances of the notoriously Rhodesia Front compromised Central Intelligence Office into the subservient and most dreaded Zanu PF military intelligence unit now masquerading as the Central Intelligence Organisation (CIO) to show how well thought of and trusted he was within Zanu PF at the attainment of Independence from colonial rule.
Even now he still holds the all too powerful position of Minister of Defence in the coalition government the first Ministry Zanu PF declared was to be under the stewardship of a minister nominated by the party.
But it’s not all gold that glitters when it comes to Mnangagwa’s political career in Zanu PF.
One touted the heir apparent to Robert Mugabe as the President of Zanu PF following the elimination of pretenders Edgar Tekere, the late Dr. Edison Zvobgo, Kumbirai Kangai and Dr Simba Makoni due to a combination of alcoholism, exhibited cowardice to challenge Mugabe for the top post in the party, corrupt tendencies and immaturity of all and some of the early favourites.
Mnangagwa enjoyed unrivalled opportunity to succeed Mugabe until a certain motor mouth Professor with an unequalled reputation for political turn coating advised him on how to get there resulting in the still birth of the infamous Thsolotsho declaration.
Mnangagwa must rue the day he ever trusted Professor Jonathan Moyo as his political misfortunes seem to increase whenever he listens to the highly regarded political scientist.
Professor Moyo’s reputation defies all logic like the Dream Team Warriors under Reinard Fabisch who remain highly regarded despite failing to win any trophies and or reaching final stages of any major international competition.
He has been making preposterous postulations about the fortunes of the country’s major political parties and when the outcomes failed to materialize he would not explore why but rather embark on a sycophantic attack of the party leadership that in his opinion failed his wayward postulations.
His return to Zanu PF to advise Mnangagwa on how to position himself as the next Zanu PF President has ended in misery of similar magnitude to Thsolotsho debacle that he had promised to atone for to Mnangagwa.
After the Tsholotsho declaration Mnangagwa who was gunning for the second vice Presidency of the party of geriatrics which he lost to Joice Mujuru was consoled with a demotion to rural Housing Minister by a disappointed Mugabe who does not take kindly to open challenges to his leadership of the party.
Professor Moyo was unceremoniously booted out of the Party and relieved of his all powerful position in government as Minister of Information and Publicity forcing him to revolt and contest elections as an Independent and won leaving Zanu PF with egg all over its face.
Mnangagwa mounted a fervent comeback campaign without the disgraced Professor and managed to piece together his tattered political career through leading the vicious Presidential runoff election campaign with Patrick Chinamasa who was his confidante during the Thsolotsho debacle and had been defeated in Parliamentary elections for Makoni Central by an MDC-T political novice the late John Nyamande who had been exiled in the UK for 7 years before the March 2008 elections.
Mnangagwa was this time handsomely rewarded with promotion to Defence Minister and for his troubles Chinamasa retained the Justice Ministry in the coalition government.
Professor Moyo who had banked on an MDC –T electoral victory to bounce back into the government was left in limbo when the vicious Presidential runoff campaign resulted in a farcical outcome as the MDC-T withdrew leading contender Morgan Tsvangirai from the race at the last minute citing conditions that were not conducive for a credible election that Mnangagwa and Chinamasa aided by the Military Commanders had masterminded.
The promotion gave him traction in the succession battles within Zanu PF and he moved swiftly to take advantage of strained relations between vice President Joice Mujuru and President Mugabe over the failed bid by the latter to extent his Presidential term to 2010 without facing a programmed and Constitutional election contest in 2008.
Suddenly there was buzz that Mnangagwa had reasserted himself as lead contender to succeed Mugabe when he retires as Zanu PF President after the coalition government term elapses within the GPA provisions.
That buzz was supported by the party’s restructuring exercises where party functionaries sympathetic to Mnangagwa seemed to be securing positions ahead of those sympathetic to VP Mujuru whose husband is the unrivalled kingmaker in Zanu PF.
Although this time around like in 2005 there was a contest for the 2nd Vice Presidency of Zanu PPF following the death of VP Joseph Msika, the contest was restricted to former Zapu members in tandem with the coerced 1987unity accord between Zanu PF and PF Zapu that resulted in the party being known as Zanu PF as it is today.
Still Mnangagwa had an opportunity to back a replacement VP who would create space for him to realise his not so transparent ambition to succeed Mugabe.
Mnangagwa like many other seasoned politicians within and outside Zanu PF knew that party Chairman John Nkomo was the most strategically positioned candidate to replace the late Msika and he moved to cement relationships with the Chairman provided the Chairman would also back him up on his preferred to succeed him.
It was all going smoothly until Professor Moyo jumped onto the rollercoaster and strained Mnangagwa’s relationship with Nkomo.
For strategic reasons Nkomo did not signal his displeasure at the Mnangagwa/Moyo alliance but worked behind the scenes to ensure a chairman other than one preferred by Mnangagwa and Moyo would succeed him in the likely event he was nominated for the Vice Presidency of the Party.
It did not make sense that while Mnangagwa was making overtures in support of Nkomo’s Presidency his strongholds of Masvingo and the Midlands Provinces were not openly supporting that bid and were instead rooting for Oppah Muchinguri to oust Joice Mujuru from the Vice Presidency and supporting Nkomo’s competitors for the other Vice Presidency spot reserved for former ZAPU cadres.
When nominations eventually were returned by the provinces it turned out that Mnangagwa and his astute advisor professor Moyo had been routed.
Mugabe whose nomination for the Presidency was forgone given the fear that grips his potential challengers to stand against him within the party was nominated uncontested by the 10 provinces and is duly elected and just awaiting ratification of party congress in December.
Joice Mujuru was nominated by 8 of the 10 provinces while Muchinguri got the support of one province Masvingo and the remaining province, Midlands played the wait and see game before announcing whom it would back between Mujuru and Muchinguri for VP as well as the John Nkomo, and Didymus Mutasa contest for the other vacant VP position.
In the aftermath of the returns from other provinces it is unlikely the Midlands will want to swim against the tide and even if it did Mnangagwa and his advisors have the onerous task of changing attitudes between now and the mid December congress of the party for them to secure the election of the nominees put by Masvingo, Midlands and Manicaland provinces out of the 10 provinces.
It does not help matters that the three opposing provinces are not backing the same candidates and will need to converge on a single candidate first before going out to seek protest votes from provinces supporting the leading contestants if at all they will not be forced to withdraw the nominations before the congress convenes.
It may not explode right away but Mnangagwa must be seething with anger at the curse to his political career of associating with Professor Jonathan Moyo.
Rumours that Professor Moyo has been earmarked for the powerful position of National Commissar may also fail to materialize if Nkomo and Mujuru team up against Mnangagwa and vent their anger on Moyo who is not a favourite of the likely VP’s.
Mnangagwa must know that what goes around comes around or as it is more succinctly put in Shona “Chisi hachiyeri musi wacharimwa.”
Those dreadful acts he led and coordinated in the vicious Presidential runoff election for the sole purpose of ingratiating himself with Mugabe are going to be negatively rewarded by the very party he worked so hard to sustain but using uncouth methods.
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