As the power sharing dispute rages on in Zimbabwe self imposed President Robert Mugabe has of recent come under increased international pressure to concede power he has unilaterally centralised in his Zanu PF cronies or step aside and allow Zimbabweans to forge ahead with the reconstruction of their government.
In the likely event Mugabe will be obstinate and refuse to make way at the same time he continues to fail to implement the Global Political Agreement (GPA) he signed together with Morgan Tsvangirai and Professor Arthur Mutambara on 15 September 2008, serious threats have been issued that he will be forced to step aside.
Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga called upon the AU to send in troops into Zimbabwe to replace Mugabe’s terrorist militia in maintaining law and order in the failed State.
Archbishop Desmond Tutu echoed him and Botswana has suggested that the Mugabe Junta be forced to resign by a bordering state embargo on fuel supplies to the country.
France, Germany, The United Kingdom, and The United States of America have added that Mugabe’s time as a dictator in Zimbabwe is up and he must be pushed out of power.
There are millions of impoverished and epidemic threatened Zimbabweans who voted Mugabe out of power on 29 March 2008 willing and available to support such calls with active engagement in a power struggle to oust Mugabe from the Zimbabwe State House.
Several obstacles are in their way to attain that noble objective not least among them the fact that;
•Mugabe has a lethal fully trained, mechanised and armed militia ready to kill anyone who dares attempt to remove Mugabe.
•Neighbouring African as well as most AU leaders are toying with the idea that the GPA they coerced from the feuding Zimbabwe politicians is the only means with which to solve the social political and economic standoff in Zimbabwe.
•They will not support any ouster of Mugabe neither will they consider alternatives to the GPA.
•The Western democracies whose position on Mugabe resonates with the majority thinking of Zimbabweans suffering under Mugabe’s dictatorship are soiled by their Colonial involvement in the country and their invasion of Iraq on false Weapons of Mass destruction warehoused by the Saddam Hussein dictatorship.
•They will not sponsor another military expedition in Zimbabwe for whatever it takes and would rather tighten the sanctions regime that has broken the Zanu PF Junta’s back but has failed to bring down the leader to his knees due to support he is getting from Africa.
•Zimbabwe’s total isolation will always be an elusive international objective because it will be vetoed by either China and/or Russia in the UN Security Council and Zimbabwe will continue to conduct international trade through bordering countries as its proxies because of its hub position in the region for trade routes.
That is why Mugabe is comfortable to use Zimbabwe as a Pan Africanist guinea-pig for defiance of Western imperialism and bargain chip for Africa to use in trade negotiations with Westerners in dire need yet short supply of the abundant raw materials the African continent has at its disposal but is incapable of transforming into day to day utilities needed for quality of life improvement among their people and globally.
Sadc pressure on Mugabe to avert the humanitarian carnage in the country he has declared himself political king immune to lifetime replacement has been accelerated by the outbreak of Cholera that threatens to engulf the region and has led to the gazetting of Constitutional Amendment Number 19 (CA No19) to pave the way for the formation of the inclusive government the region feels will resolve the leadership crisis the country is facing and reverse its tumbling economic, social and political fortunes.
Unfortunately they are wrong about that assertion because the people of Zimbabwe have not bought into the GPA as a replacement of their right to choose leaders of choice.
A critical mass of Zimbabweans wants real and meaningful political change.
They have lost all faith and hope in Mugabe steering the country towards such revolutionary change that will restore their freedoms he has systematically taken away from them using ruthless repression.
Any political formation that courts and actively seeks to coalesce permanently with a Mugabe led political initiative will be discredited in the eyes and minds of most Zimbabweans who will ultimately find means and ways to oppose that coalition.
The reason is very simply that no lasting political coalition is possible with Mugabe and during the currency of the coalition Mugabe will do everything in his power to consolidate Zanu PF’s grip on power while he systematically dismantles the power bases of his newly found allies.
That is why the MDC is not enthusiastic about a five year relationship with Mugabe and Zanu PF where three quarters of the time will be spent on political haggling on policy issues at the end of which people will start questioning its achievements.
The MDC is desirous of a short term coalition period between one and half years to three years at the most to halt further decline of the economic malaise, restore confidence in the judiciary and its impartiality and set up conditions for holding credible and violent free elections where people will choose their preferred political leadership without fear.
SADC and AU appear to favour a long term accommodation of Mugabe for him to either die in office or consolidate the waning fortunes of his ZANU PF party by passing all blame for government failure he will cause on coalition partners or even belittling them with unilateral trumped up arrests and dismissal from the government to stain their political repute.
The legislation of CA No19 had been unduly delayed by Mugabe and Zanu PF’s intransigence as it was part of the agreement Mugabe did not like to implement.
Because Mugabe has shown his true intentions the MDC now intends to use CA No 19 Parliamentary processes to compel Mugabe to visit other contentious aspects of the agreement he has vitiated starting with reversal of key appointments he has unilaterally effected, equitable distribution of Ministries, definition of the roles and responsibilities of the National Security Council and allocation of key government positions between parties to the GPA.
The Western democracies have rediscovered their voice after Mugabe’s Junta was forced to swallow its pride by a ravaging Cholera epidemic and appealed to the International Community for assistance.
They have in turn called for his removal from office if need be by force for his failed leadership of the country.
They are planning a motion for the UN Security Council to adopt measures to see to it that Mugabe is removed from office in Zimbabwe politics if he does not step aside voluntarily.
When will this circus end the impoverished and Cholera threatened Zimbabweans ask?
Zimbabweans are anxious to see Mugabe’s back after voting against his continued stay in office on 29 March 2008.
It therefore means anyone proposing Mugabe’s forcible removal from office is declaring war against Mugabe’s militia that is presented as the National Security Forces.
Those that are not willing to finance and or prosecute such a war should stop raising expectations in Zimbabwe to unsustainable levels.
There are too many desperate yet energetic people in Zimbabwe ready and willing to remove Mugabe from office by force but they are all unarmed and sitting ducks for his vicious militia.
Stating that Mugabe’s time in office is up without any signs of a corresponding military initiatives to dismantle that which Mugabe has in place to defend his continued stay in office is rather naive and useless demagoguery.
Those that want to reclaim the militarily stolen Zimbabwe votes must first set up a military establishment to prosecute the war against Mugabe’s militia.
Avail the disgruntled Zimbabweans rear bases from which to launch attacks on Mugabe’s militia, train a core group and equip it then unleash it on Mugabe after just 12 weeks of intensive training and they will recruit supporters among the populace.
Within 18 months the Mugabe Junta will be history as between 70 and 90% 0f Zimbabweans are willing and ready to take up arms against Mugabe.
That will halve the period Zimbabweans will suffer under a Mugabe led inclusive government for five years at the end of which nothing tangible will be in place to allow the people to exercise electoral democracy in a free and safe environment.
Alternatively and most sensibly Mugabe must be made to submit to a credible and internationally organised and supervised Presidential runoff election that he circumvented in June 2008.
If he refuses as he is likely to do, the international community led by SADC must then rightfully refuse to have anything to do with his government and within two months he will succumb to an uprising in the country.
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