Mugabe's ZANU PF threats to abandon the GPA implementation until such time as Tsvangirai's MDC party causes the lifting of imposed on Zanu PF leadership are ill advised political hot air that will spell doom for Zanu PF if the MDC partners declare a deadlock and SADC and the AU are forced to intervene and force the parties to hold internationally supervised elections to resolve the deadlock.
The Sadc mediated GPA that imposed the current Zimbabwe government was from the outset agreed to be an imperfect solution to a political situation that was threatening not just Zimbabweans but also regional economies and security.
Subdued and battle weary Zimbabweans were disillusioned by the outcomes of GPA negotiations.
But in their weak physical and spiritual positions they resigned themselves to fate and hoped they could salvage something from the flawed agreement.
To a large extent they were right because they indeed benefited immensely when politically motivated violence by Zanu PF subsided drastically and economic stability resulted in unexpected reprieve from the ravages of Zanu PF scripted hyperinflation that pauperised the entire nation.
The re-energised nation increased lifted their bar of expectations from inclusivity higher with each improvement to their quality of life that accrued from the coalition government economic and social interventions.
The rise in expectations was faster than the moribund and rusted brains in Zanu PF leadership could cope with and the exodus of supporters from the Party of geriatrics to the vibrant MDT-T threatened Zanu PF to its foundations.
The change had to be slowed down somehow if the former invincible vanguard party had to remain politically relevant and the only way to do that was to renege on GPA provisions that had the greatest potential to show the ordinary populace how well and quickly the MDC-T was equipped and capable of turning around the rot that Zanu PF had nurtured over the past three decades it had exercised unquestioned political power.
But the more the Zanu PF leadership attempted to derail benefits devolving to the ordinary populace the more supporters it lost to the MDC-T.
Arguments that Zanu PF had relied on to retain support such as land ownership and empowerment suddenly lost value as people realised that they were better economically empowered not through land ownership but rather through freedom from politically motivated violence and impunity and space to freely engage in an economic environment underpinned by price stability and controlled inflation.
Zanu PF which had hitherto blamed runaway commodity prices, inflation and commodity shortages on sanctions was left severely exposed by the coalition government’s fiscal policies that not only arrested inflation but also restocked the retail outlets the Zanu PF government had pillaged and plundered bare through price controls, militia interventions and corrupt racketeering.
Ordinary people who hitherto had believed Zanu PF explanations that sanctions were responsible for their economic dire straits increasingly started questioning party leadership over the veracity of their previous assertions given that the situation had turned around for the better yet the said sanctions had not been officially announced to have been lifted.
Zanu PF’s attempt to claim credit for crafting the multi-currency intervention that stabilised prices and arrested inflation did not help the party much as it left the people questioning why the party did not do so earlier before they had been turned destitute and even more distrustful of the party.
But the Zanu PF reeling from effects of frozen assets and lack of the loophole to sustain high quality life through unrestrained money printing by the Reserve Bank continued preaching the lies that the sanctions were retarding the country’s recovery prospects.
The truth is that Zanu PF leaders are failing to sustain living standards they had become accustomed to because of stringent economic controls exercised by the Finance Minister that have drastically minimised corruption and impunity as well as patronage rewards.
They want access to funds they had ferreted and stashed in offshore accounts that were frozen by the EU and US sanctions on Zanu PF leadership.
They are aware that they have no chance in hell of retaining power after the GPA and in the likely event the MDC-T takes over government reigns before their frozen loot is made accessible to them they may never realise the stashed funds which they have no explanation for how they were acquired.
That is why from its Congress late last year the Party of geriatrics resolved that it was no longer interested in adhering to the GPA unless the MDC-T petitioned the US and EU to lift the sanctions preventing them from accessing their looted stashes abroad.
The MDC-T has consistently argued that it has no powers to lift the restrictions imposed on Zanu PF leadership with the MDC-T’s tacit approval as they were in support of its claims for democratic space which has now been largely realised.
Because of that realisation the MDC-T is not entirely averse to relaxation of restrictive measures imposed on Zimbabwean companies that were hitherto under exclusive control of Zanu PF but now are superintended by the MDC-T appointed Finance Minister and other Ministers from the party.
The most popular party has however been cautious not to be at the forefront of the advocacy for the lifting of the restrictive measures against individual and powerful Zanu PF zealots before securing irreversibility of the democratisation process.
When the British Foreign Secretary David Milliband accurately responded to a question on the Zanu PF sanctions and disclosed that his country’s government would be guided by the MDC in determining whether or not to retain restrictions on Zanu PF leaders the out of sorts Zanu PF leadership capitalised.
They had finally got something on which to crucify the MDC-T as the source of the sanctions they are reeling under and they now think they have concrete grounds upon which to refuse to adhere by the terms of the GPA which they in party parlance refer to as concessions.
They are in for a rude awakening from their stupor of political amnesia if they believe they have found an unassailable basis for abandoning the GPA.
First there is absolutely nothing wrong in the international community or the United Kingdom listening to the most representative party in the country to get guidance and shape appropriate its foreign policy on that basis.
Second the GPA is not an agreement between the UK and Zanu PF but rather an African inspired agreement to resolve an African problem as Zanu PF has always insisted and reneging on it will not fail Western leadership in the UK but African leadership in Zimbabwe first Sadc next and finally the AU who demanded and got their way in claiming responsibility for resolving the Zimbabwe political impasse that followed the 2008 harmonised elections.
Without the GPA the cherished claim by Zanu PF that its First Secretary and Party President is the country’s President, Head of State and Government as well as Commander in Chief of the Defence forces is null and void.
The coalition government must be dissolved within 90 days and elections to choose the new legitimate Government and President must be staged.
The sanctions they are intending to be removed will be tightened to ensure they stage violence free and credible elections which the party will not win.
After losing the elections the frozen assets they intend to recover from the lifting of sanctions will only be accessed by those that will prove they acquired them legitimately and there is none among them who can do so meaning they will be impounded by the state.
Sadly the dissolution of the coalition government after a deadlock in its continuation is not within the exclusive control of Zanu PF but rather that of SADC and the AU and their hands will be tied even if they want to defend the continuation of the government in instances where Zanu PPF refuses to live by the terms it agreed in mediated talks by the two bodies that had the tacit approval of the UN.
The entire nation other than the moribund and blindfolded Zanu PF leadership knows that Zanu PF stands to lose more from the dissolution of the coalition government than its other two partners combined and more so the MDC-T.
The populace at large also knows that Zanu PF has nothing to offer than the vicious dosage of unbridled violence and corruption it has dished in the past three decades it has ruled the country and will go all out to vote against the party reclaiming political dominance it used to have in those three decades.
The electorate knows that the sanctions argument is a ruse that will not benefit them in any way if they are lifted or negatively affect them if they are retained.
The Zimbabwe electorate is alert to the reason why Zanu PF leadership is keen to have sanctions imposed against their travel and that froze their looted assets relaxed including why the Party is associating the sanctions to Tsvangirai to the extent of renaming the restrictions Tsvanctions of late.
The Zanu PF political nightmare is not the hindrances of the sanctions on national recovery but the prospect of competing for political office in a credible environment against MDC-T leader Morgan Tsvangirai.
That is why they are concentrating on discrediting him for the sanctions whose effects only those with frozen assets and travel bans abroad are languishing from.
An announcement of early elections is what most people are waiting for if SADC and the international community can guarantee freedom from violence during those elections.
The MDC-T knows that the SADC and international community has limitations in guaranteeing violence free elections in the country based on its past experiences.
That is why it is not losing sleep over threats from Zanu PF about the granting of concessions as the MDC-T wants the Constitution revision process to be successfully completed and then go to elections on the provisions of that new Constitution which they will ensure will close loopholes Zanu PF has previously used to rig itself into power.
Forget the sanctions being the reason why Zanu PF is afraid to abide by the GPA it is the fear of competing against Tsvangirai for political office that is driving the party crazy and they have every reason to be wary of him.
He is riding on the crest of popular support which will be difficult to overhaul in any free election.
Zanu PF can take whatever stance it feels comfortable with in its interaction with coalition government partners of convenience but if it dares take untenable positions the partners will hit back with dire consequences on Zanu PF whose political relevance and current political lifeline is the coalition partners.
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