Premier Tsvangirai, Deputy Premier Prof Mutambara and President Mugabe facing numerous problems implementing the GPA that is now under serious threat of premature foreclosure.
When it was conceived we were told that it was the best option available to end the political impasse in the country and mitigate the debilitating economic downturn that had gripped the country with hardships never witnessed before.
Sane and well grounded arguments that pointed out that the best way to end the impasse permanently was internationally supervised violence free elections were discounted on the grounds that the country needed time to heal from scars of previous acrimony and polarisation that characterised politics in the country.
But from the onset it became apparent that the coalition government was always going to sail in turbulent waters and risked capsizing before completion of its cursed voyage.
Soon after he was legitimised as President Robert Mugabe the octogenarian Zanu PF leader did not hide his disdain of the agreement he had just signed to legitimise his disputed claim to Presidency of the country.
“There are many clauses in this agreement that are not to my liking and likewise the leader of the MDC Morgan Tsvangirai,” he ominously revealed to the captive audience that included several Heads of State that had come to witness the momentous occasion of the signing of the Global Political Agreement (GPA) which was the foundation upon which the coalition was supposed to operate.
The symbolic public signing ceremony nearly failed to materialise as the MDC-T had well founded reservations.
The MDC –T was rightfully in doubt about the sincerity and commitment of Zanu PF to the agreement. The party’s fears were not helped by the failure of Sadc Heads to strike an equitable balance in the distribution of key ministries among coalition subscribers.
The forced co-Ministering of the Home Affairs Ministry as well as the omission to address the allotment of Provincial Governorship prior to the agreement being formalised were serious sources of discontent in the MDC-T which it felt had been handled shoddily by the mediation process that produced the GPA.
It was only after then South Africa President and Sadc mediator in chief Thabo Mbeki had given irrevocable commitment to address the allotment of Provincial Governorships immediately after the signing of the ceremony that the MDC-T agreed to sign the document albeit grudgingly.
The stop gap political settlement that the GPA was and still is envisaged to be to allow the country to restore democratic governance that had been usurped by a military Junta fronted by Zanu PF President Robert Mugabe envisaged an 18 to 24 months lifespan for the GPA during which the unelected government would set the groundwork for credible democratic elections to elect a successor government.
In tandem with that the coalition was agreed upon on the grounds that it would halt political decadence and mischief that had become the hallmark of the exclusive Zanu PF regimes of the past 3 decades and halt the economic collapse of the country while addressing issues that provided fertile grounds for impunity.
But the actions of President Mugabe soon after signing the agreement provided pointers that are now being realised and threatening the premature foreclosure of the coalition government.
Instead of taking advantage of the presence of the Sadc ensemble at the signing ceremony to show genuine commitment to the GPA by swearing the Premier and his Deputies as well as the Vice Presidents that were there present to form the steering leadership of the coalition government he packed his shopping bags and was off for a three day UN session in the USA the following day leaving the country without a government as the GPA had only confirmed him as the Head of State.
When he returned he did not address the Provincial Governorship dispute as promised but the Sadc mediator nor did he move swiftly to swear in the Premiership team but instead started arguing that he wanted Parliament to first pass the Constitutional Amendment empowering him to form the government as agreed in the GPA.
This was notwithstanding the fact that the GPA had a clause authorising him to swear in the Premier, Deputy Premiers and Vice Presidents in advance of the passage of Constitutional Amendments in order to create a team that he would work with in negotiating key government Appointments to man the bureaucracy.
Irked by the slow pace in agreeing Ministerial portfolio and Provincial Governorship allotments the MDC-T referred the dispute to Sadc for mediation and on 27 January 2009 Sadc heads met in Maputo and laid down a strict timeframe to be followed by the GPA subscribers in order to form the coalition government .
President Mugabe had tried to form an exclusive government through taking control of Parliament by entering into an unholy alliance with the MDC-M where the tribal breakaway faction of the MDC would field a candidate for Parliamentary speakership with guaranteed support of Zanu PF legislative votes.
Sly President Mugabe had convinced Sadc Heads of State that MDC-T grievances in the way of the formation of the coalition government were frivolous and he could go it alone if allowed to convene parliament where he would take control with MDC-M support.
The cynical political initiative collapsed when the MDC-T fielding for Parliament Speakership romped to victory against the MDC-M fielding.
That defeat weakened Mugabe and Zanu PF into submitting to the SADC timeframe for forming the coalition government with the two MDC formations and forced him to agree to a review of appointments he had unilaterally made to bolster chances of winning control of Parliament and in preparation for a Zanu PF government in coalition with the MDC-M.
Of course President Mugabe was never committed to a coalition government with his nemesis Morgan Tsvangirai and only agreed the SADC timeframe to save face and avert him being delegitimized as the country’s President.
He formed the government grudgingly as the expected MDC-T declinature to join the government failed to materialise even when all the State propaganda machinery was utilise to dissuade MDC-T from being part of the coalition government.
Amazingly the coalition government has ridden over numerous hurdles thrown in its tracks by disgruntled Zanu PF supporters who were disadvantaged by the sharing of power between the coalition partners.
Critical objectives that were agreed upon in the GPA such as the appointment of Commissions, Media reforms, reconciliation and national healing, land audit and constitution re-writing were and are suffering from the weight of hurdles thrown in their way by the unrepentant and disgruntled Zanu PF functionaries who rightly see their success as the final stroke that will end the Zanu PF stranglehold on power in Zimbabwe.
Key appointments such as Permanent Secretaries, Reserve Bank Governor, Provincial Governors and the Attorney General were unilaterally effected by President Mugabe in contravention of the provisions of Constitution Amendment No 19 CA No 19 which is the GPA text that was added to the Constitution to legitimise the coalition government.
The sole purpose has been to provoke a walkout from the coalition government by the MDC-T but all has been in vain as the party continued to exceed expectations in its performance within the coalition under the adverse environment created by Zanu PF.
In CA No 19 the coalition government pronounced its collective distaste for the continuation of the sanctions imposed against the exclusive Zanu PF regime that preceded it.
But because the government has failed to speak with one voice on key elements in the GPA EU and USA sanctions have remained in place with imposers saying they will only lft them if there is total compliance with the terms of the GPA.
Yet Zanu PF insists that it will not abide by the GPA unless the sanctions are removed as if it signed the GPA with the imposers of the sanctions.
The false belief in Zanu PF is that the sanctions denying them access to looted funds they have stashed in EU and other countries were imposed at the behest of the MDC-T and thus the party must cause for their lifting before it can be treated as an equal partner in the coalition government.
But facts on the ground point to the contrary that sanctions were imposed on the Zanu PF regime to mitigate its unbridled human rights abuses of political opponents and the MDC-T which was the major object of the abuses supported the measures because that was the only way it had to confront Zanu PF impunity.
Now that it has taken its position in government and thinks it can protect its supporters against Zanu PF barbarism from within the government it has no reason to support continuation of the restrictive measures imposed on Zanu PF political malcontents.
Be that as it may the MDC-T is not convinced that Zanu PF will play ball in critical outstanding issues that the coalition government must address without some form of international leverage the party can fall back on in the event Zanu PF lapses into its habitual state of political thuggery and violence.
That is why the MDC-T has consistently implored the US and EU to consider staggered removal of sanctions in tandem with progress the coalition government has achieved towards implementation of the GPA and restoration of democratic governance.
Zanu PF stalwarts used to getting whatever they want out of nothing or through the use of force are impatient with delays in them accessing the stashes of their loot that have been frozen in EU and USA offshore accounts and each day that passes draws the country closer to the next elections that the party knows are beyond its ability to win if held under a new Constitution and in a violence free environment.
The real prospects of an electoral outcome that will surely reduce Zanu PF representation in Parliament and remove it from government are too ghastly to contemplate for many Zanu PF bigwigs who fear that they may never access the funds they have stashed away under a new and most likely MDC-T political dispensation.
That is why they are now getting more and more vociferous about the lifting of sanctions as a bargaining chip for supporting hitherto unconditionally agreed to coalition government democratisation processes.
Fortuitous MDC-M leader Professor Mutambara is aware that the end of the coalition government will most likely be the end of his nascent political career within the unpopular faction he leads and in the country where he has no constituency to fall back on for recovery.
It is evident that after his faction suffers defeat in the elections to end the coalition government Professor Mutambara will have to find political accommodation elsewhere other than in MDC-M to remain relevant.
The sad reality is he realises that there are limited chances for securing such accommodation in MDC-T and that leaves the only meaningful option left for him being joining Zanu PF.
The decision to join Zanu PF will not be without a political capital toll on him as he has been accused of having Zanu PF inclinations and refuted same for too long a time now.
When he rejoins Zanu PF, as he will surely do unless the lifespan of the coalition government is prolonged through the lifting of sanctions and thereby relieving Zanu PF to relapse into impunity in the knowledge that it was safe from international censure, his previous denial of association with the party of geriatrics and thugs will be brought into question as is happening to Professor Jonathan Moyo.
What is evident for now is that a premature ending of the political marriage of convenience between Mugabe, Tsvangirai and Mutambara is nearing its end and only Tsvangirai is carrying a healthy pregnancy from the artificial insemination the trio got from indulging in the GNU.
Professor Mutambara will deliver a still born for his faction while Mugabe is likely to deliver an unhealthy baby with a multiplicity of complications that will keep the baby on life support for the following five years.
If there is no medical breakthrough for some of the life threatening complexities that Mugabe will deliver for Zanu PF the child will die after five years and Zimbabweans will give a sigh of relief.
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